Campaign #93 is for Danny O’Connor for Ohio CD12
Six months ago, Ohio Congressman Pat Tiberi resigned to take a lucrative private sector job. The vacancy triggered an expensive special election to fill the remainder of his term. Ohio Democrats in the 12th Congressional District nominated Danny O’Connor. Danny’s race to win – even if it is for a few short months in D.C. – is our 93rd Postcards to Voters campaign.
For all but two of the last 80 years, Ohio’s 12th has been in Republican hands — most recently, represented from 1982-2000 by present Ohio Gov. John Kasich and for the past 18 years by fellow Republican Pat Tiberi. It is worth noting, therefore, that the white-collar influence of Columbus creates political rhythms that are somewhat different than the rest of Ohio. While the state swung 11 points from Obama 2012 to Trump 2016, the needle hardly budged in the 12th district: a 54-44% Romney win in 2012 was a nearly identical 52-41% Trump win in the district. (The Columbus area favored Clinton 49-46%, while the rest of the district favored Trump 63-32%).
So, it’s not going to be an easy road for Ohio Democrats. But, that’s never stopped Postcards to Voters before.
The Republican nominee had to overcome a spirited primary race with nine opponents. By less than 800 votes out of more than 67,000 cast, he eked out a win over an outspoken “Trump Republican” who had the backing of the House Freedom Caucus. This could mean some more Trumpian voters will stay home rather than vote for someone who regularly compares himself to Kasich (a fierce Never Trumper).
Outgoing Rep. Tiberi spent an estimated half-million dollars of his remaining campaign funds on a TV blitz reminding voters that he was endorsing the eventual Republican nominee. So, Danny can use our help for both name recognition and reminding Democrats to plan to vote on August 7th.
A poll conducted by JMC Analytics between June 13-16 of 500 likely voters found with a 4.4% margin of error that in this Republican district, the Governor’s race is a statistical tie. The partisan contours of this race are similar to the Senate race, and that should concern Republicans: Democrats favor their candidate for Governor 89-7%, Republicans favor theirs 62-15%, and Independents favor the Democratic candidate 46-34%.
In this special election, the Republican as higher name recognition (82 vs 73%) than O’Connor. That’s where we come in. With 5 full weeks before the election, we will be able to write to every Democratic voter in OH CD12. Your fun, friendly cards arriving daily throughout the district will, as they always do, generate a positive buzz among Democrats. They’ll be telling their friends and Danny’s name recognition among voters will get better.
Here is a video of Danny talking about his mother’s battle with breast cancer and how it became his cornerstone to fight for greater health care access: https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/999008956180725760
They say that a week in campaigns is a lifetime. Well, we have 5 weeks. It’s our first race in the Buckeye state. Let’s show them what Postcards to Voters can do!